The company's experts predict that the cybersecurity world in 2026 will be primarily influenced by the following trends:
AI agents reduce MTTR by at least 30%
While attackers are increasingly using AI, defenders will have the advantage in 2026 as agentic AI systems mature. The most commonly used software and services will not only be rebuilt around agentic AI but will also deliver measurable risk reduction compared to their pre-AI variants. For SOC teams, tasks such as tier-one triage, enrichment, and containment will be performed by policy-framed AI agents. This can reduce the average response time (MTTR) by 30 to 50 percent for mature teams. Moreover, these security agents generate immutable audit trails of every action and create complete incident reports, thereby reducing compliance burdens and speeding up post-incident reviews.
At the same time, cybercriminals will use AI tools to make attacks larger in scale and more successful than with traditional means. Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers, used in LLMs, will present an increasingly attractive attack surface, while browser agents and prompt injection attacks will dominate the landscape of vulnerabilities. Attacks will remain targeted and refined, with quality becoming more important than quantity, partly because automation and generative AI enable realistic, harder-to-detect attacks.
Humans & AI agents together form the new workforce
In 2026, the role of AI tools will shift from passive to active. They will be regarded as autonomous members of security teams. This will cause a fundamental change in how organizations need to view their workforce. As agentic AI shifts from experiment to essential operational team member, organizations must expand their definition of 'workforce training' to include policies, behavioral expectations, and guardrails for AI agents.
Digital identities increase in popularity
Although privacy concerns have so far slowed the adoption of mandatory digital IDs, digital identities linked to citizens' real identities will increase in popularity. This will be driven by the rollout of large-scale programs such as the European Digital Identity Wallet, which will be available to all EU citizens in 2026. Although these systems are unlikely to become mandatory, they will increasingly be necessary for access to digital services. The security of digital identities will therefore become more critical than ever.
Q-Day is coming
Q-Day — the moment when quantum computers are powerful enough to crack most current forms of asymmetric encryption — is expected to occur in 2026. Organizations must therefore implement stronger human authentication (such as passkeys and device-bound credentials) and apply the same governance requirements to non-human identities such as service accounts, API keys, and AI agent credentials.
Shadow syndicates target geopolitical hotspots
Organized crime and cybercrime will increasingly collaborate in 2026 in so-called shadow syndicates, where cyberattacks bolster physical operations and are deployed around geopolitical tension points and critical infrastructure. The energy, water, and transport sectors will face an increase in attacks as a result.
The predictions have been compiled by KnowBe4's global team of CISO advisors, experts with decades of experience in cybersecurity. More information about KnowBe4's expert team is available here.
